NZ Budget 2022

When I looked at figures from the 2022 BEFU (Budget Economic and Fiscal Update) and the Financial Statements of the Government of New Zealand for the year ended 30 June 2021 I found that the extra government expenditure during Covid has been baked into every year into the future. This amounts to an extra $25bn per year of total Crown Expenditure, which compares with the actual figure for 2021 of $133bn – a 19% increase. This take government expenditure from 35.5% to 42.1% as a percentage of GDP.

NZD bnChange
2015 Actual93,064
2016 Actual95,1372.2%
2017 Actual99,0074.1%
2018 Actual104,0145.1%
2019 Actual111,3767.1%
2020 Actual138,91624.7%
2021 Actual133,722-3.7%
2022 Budget154,88715.8%
2023 Budget158,5282.4%
2024 Budget163,5083.1%
2025 Budget167,8722.7%
2026 Budget177,2545.6%

One might have expected total Crown Expenditure to fall after Covid. After all the costs of the vaccination program and furlough do not continue. However, in New Zealand government expenditure continues as if these costs are to be incurred every year into the future. Below I graph what Total Crown Expenditure would have been with annual growth of 4.5%pa from 2019.

The government is making no attempt to return to the pre-Covid trend line. And there has been no attempt to explain what we are getting for this [massive] extra expenditure.

Arctic Sea Ice Minumum 2022

With Arctic ice having reached its Minimum for 2022, it is time for the annual update. My figures come from NSIDC

2022 tied with 2010 as the eleventh lowest on record. That is to say that ten years had LOWER winter sea ice maxima that this year.

The last sixteen (16) years show the lowest annual arctic sea ice minimum in the satellite record (ie since 1979). However, the trend over the last sixteen years 2006 – 2022 is -0.05% per annum. That seems to me to be as close to flat as makes no difference.

With the correct use of the english language present tense, the world IS not warming.

Figures for annual minima are:

Arctic Ice Sheet Minima

 Year m Km2

Here is a graph of these figures: